ANALISIS SPATIO-TEMPORAL PERUBAHAN TUTUPAN LAHAN DAN KAITANNYA DENGAN TEMPERATUR PERMUKAAN LAHAN DI DESA CIPUTRI PERIODE 2005-2035

I Kadek Yoga Dwi Putra; Masita Dwi Mandini  Manessa; Adi Wibowo

doi:10.21776/ub.jtsl.2025.012.2.16

Authors

I Kadek Yoga Dwi Putra Departemen Geografi, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Indonesia https://orcid.org/0009-0005-4063-4299
Masita Dwi Mandini Manessa Departemen Geografi, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0230-9311
Adi Wibowo Departemen Geografi, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3946-0026

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jtsl.2025.012.2.16

Keywords:

CA-ANN, LST, LULC, prediction, remote sensing

Abstract

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change are major factors affecting Land Surface Temperature (LST), especially in areas experiencing urbanisation and climate change pressures. Ciputri Village, which is predominantly agricultural, has experienced significant changes in land cover patterns over the past two decades, with the potential for increased surface temperature due to land use change. This study analyses and predicts the dynamics of land use and cover changes and their relationship with land surface temperature in the period 2005-2035 using a combination of remote sensing data and Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) models. The analysis showed that between 2005 and 2020, the area of dense vegetation decreased by 20.49%, while built-up land increased by 43.75%. In line with these changes, surface temperature increased by 1.96°C on average. Predictions to 2035 show a similar trend, with built-up land projected to increase by 20.11%, while average surface temperature is expected to increase by 2.71°C compared to 2005. The correlation between land cover change and surface temperature variation suggests that conversion of dense vegetation to mixed land and built-up land is a major factor driving temperature increases. These findings emphasise the urgency of spatially-based climate change mitigation, including vegetation conservation and sustainable development planning to reduce the impact of future temperature increases.

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Author Biographies

I Kadek Yoga Dwi Putra, Departemen Geografi, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Indonesia

I Kadek Yoga Dwi Putra is currently pursuing a Master’s degree in Geography at the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Meteorology from the Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung. He works as a Scientific Data Analyst at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN). His research interests include land use and land cover change (LUCC), land suitability evaluation, land surface temperature, remote sensing, meteorology, and urban heat islands. He can be reached via email at [email protected] or by phone at +62 857 3955 9039.
Masita Dwi Mandini Manessa, Departemen Geografi, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Indonesia

Dr. Masita Dwi Mandini Manessa is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia. She specializes in remote sensing and geospatial analysis, with a particular focus on land cover change and environmental monitoring. Her expertise in satellite-based observation methods and spatial modeling aligns with the objectives of this study which examines land cover dynamics and their relationship with surface temperature. Dr. Manessa's extensive research background enhances the analytical framework of this study, particularly in integrating remote sensing techniques for spatio-temporal analysis. Dr. Manessa has an h-index of 6 in Scopus and 12 in Google Scholar, reflecting her significant contributions to her field.
Adi Wibowo, Departemen Geografi, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Indonesia

Adi Wibowo, S.Si., M.Si., Ph.D., is a Lecturer in the Department of Geography, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia. He earned his Ph.D. in Geography from the University of Malaya. His research focuses on Geographic Information Systems (GIS), particularly in change detection related to human activities and infrastructure development. Dr. Wibowo has an h-index of 8 in Scopus and 14 in Google Scholar, reflecting his significant contributions to his field.

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