Mohammad Imam Mashudi, S Soemarno


Rain is one of the natural phenomena that is needed but reliable if it exceeds the limit. The one in need of rain is agriculture. The expected rainfall is that which corresponds to the air requirements for each plant. Production of oranges in East Java in Junrejo Sub-District, Batu City. The production of  plants is determined by limiting factors such as topography and climate. The purpose of this study was to analyze the factors of land development with productivity conditions in Junrejo Sub-District, Batu City. Analysis of land-forming factors consisted of three stages, i.e. ground field checks, field data data, and data analysis. Result of the study indicated that productivity of orange was still vulnerable to limiting factors This could be seen from the factors analyzed, namely rainfall, land slope. Precipitation of rainfall in Junrejo district was analyzed using IDRIS software with mathematical method CA_Markov Chain where the transition matrix was compared t0 and t1 (t1 = t0 + T) Overlaid from the 2 data. The time series is needed to manage rainfall starts from 2007 - 2017. For data validation, rainfall data in 2011 is required as validation data for 2027 forecasting.


rainfall; citrus; idris selva; limitations of land; productivity

Full Text:



Akitt, J.W. 2018. Some observations on the greenhouse effect at the Earth's surface. Spectrochimica Acta Part A: Molecular and Biomolecular Spectroscopy, 188: 127-134.

Anderson, T.R., E.Hawkins and Jones, P.D. 2016. CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models. Endeavour, 40(3): 178-187.

Ashari, H.E. and Parsei, M. 2014, Application of the multi-criteria decision method ELECTRE III for the Weapon selection, Decision Science Letters 3, Growing Science Ltd, pp. 511-522.

Bustan, A., Goldschmidt, E.E. and Erner, Y. 1996. Integrating temperature effects on fruit growth into a citrus productivity mode. Proceeding of International Society of Citric. II (1996), pp. 938-944

Christian, J. 2009. Flowering time control and applications in plant breeding. Article • Literature Review. Trends in Plant Science 14(10):563-73.

Courage, J. 2009. Rural Sustainability Under Threat in Zimbabwe : Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Changes in The Bindura District Based on The Markov–Cellular Automata Model. Jurnal Applied Geographic 29: 435–447.

Cryer, J.D. and Chan, K. 2008. Time Series Analysis with Applications in R 2nd Edition. Springer. New York.

Dixit, P.N., Telleria, R., Al Khatib, A.N. and Allouzi, S.F. 2018. Decadal analysis of impact of future climate on wheat production in dry Mediterranean environment: A case of Jordan. Science of the Total Environment 610–611: 219-233.

Djaenuddin, D., Marwan, H., Subagjo, H. dan Hidayat, A. 2011. Petunjuk Teknis Evaluasi Lahan Untuk Komoditas Pertanian. Balai Besar Litbang Sumberdaya Lahan Pertanian, Badan Litbang Pertanian, Bogor. 36p.

Djoemaijah. 1996. Pengaruh Lama Pengeringan terhadap Pembungaan dan Pembuahan Jeruk Keprok Siam. Jurnal Horticultura 6(2) :156-160.

Effendy, S. 2001. Urgensi Prediksi Cuaca dan Iklim di Bursa Komoditas Unggulan Pertanian. Makalah Falsafah Sains Program Pasca Sarjana/S3. Institut Pertanian Bogor.

Firdaniza, N., Gusriani dan Suryamah, E. 2016. Distribusi Stasioner Rantai Markov untuk Prediksi Curah Hujan Di Wilayah Jawa Barat. Departemen Matematika Universitas Padjadjaran. p (1036).

García-Tejero, I., Romero-Vicente, R., Jiménez-Bocanegra, J.A., Martínez-García, G., Durán-Zuazo, V.H. and Muriel-Fernández, J.L. 2010. Response of citrus trees to deficit irrigation during different phenological periods in relation to yield, fruit quality, and water productivity. Agricultural Water Management 97(5): 689-699

Giyanti, N. 2001. Inventarisasi dan Identifikasi Jeruk Keprok (Citrus reticulata Blanco) Asli Tawangmangu di Kecamatan Tawangmangu. [Skripsi]. Surakarta: Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Sebelas Maret.

Guslim. 2007. Agroklimatologi. Medan : USU Press.

Haryadi, N.K. 2013. Jeruk-Jeruk Bumbu. Seri Perkebunan Modern. Jakarta.

Hatfield, J.L. and Prueger, J.H. 2015. Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development. Weather and Climate Extremes 10(Part A): 4-10.

Hatfield, J.L., Boote, K.J., Kimball, B.A., Ziska, L.H., Izaurralde, R.C., Ort, D., Thomson, A.M. and Wolfe, D. 2011. Climate impacts on agriculture: implications for crop production. Agronomy Joutnal 103(2): 351-370

Hertig, E. and Tramblay, Y. 2017. Regional downscaling of Mediterranean droughts under past and future climatic conditions. Global and Planetary Change 151: 36-48.

Iizumi, T. and Ramankutty, N. 2015. How do weather and climate influence cropping area and intensity? Global Food Security 4: 46-50.

IPCC. 2001. Climate change : impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Report of the working group II. Cambridge University Press. UK. p 967.

Irawan, D. 2007. Potensi Pengembangan Tanaman Apel ( Malus sylvetris mill ) Berdasarkan Aspek Agroklimat di Jawa Timur. Skripsi. IPB.

Kang, Y., Khan, S. and Ma., X 2009. Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security – A review. Progress in Natural Science 19(12): 1665-1674.

Kwon, Y.S., Bae, N.C.M.J., Li, F., Chon, T.S., Kim, M.H., Na, Y.E. and Park, Y.S. 2013. Evaluation of global warming effects on the geographical distribution of weeds in paddy fields by characterizing germination time and morphological factors. Ecological Informatics, 17: 94-103.

Las, I. 2007. Pembingkaian Diskusi Panel dan Penelitian Konsorsium Perubahan Iklim. Presentasi pada rapat (Roud Table Disscusion) Tim Pokja Anomali Iklim. Badan Litbang Pertanian.

Michelle, T.H. van Vliet., Franssen, W.H.P., Yearsley, J.R., Ludwig, F., Haddeland, I., Lettenmaier, D.P. and Kabat, P. 2013. Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change. Global Environmental Change 23(2): 450-464.

Navarro, J.M., Botía, P. and Pérez-Pérez., J.G 2015. Influence of deficit irrigation timing on the fruit quality of grapefruit (Citrus paradisi Mac.). Food Chemistry, 175: 329-336.

Ochieng, J., Kirimi, L. and Mathenge, M. 2016. Effects of climate variability and change on agricultural production: The case of small scale farmers in Kenya. NJAS - Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences 77: 71-78.

Panigrahi, P., Sharma, R.K., Hasan, M. and Parihar, S.S. 2014. Deficit irrigation scheduling and yield prediction of ‘Kinnow’ mandarin (Citrus reticulate Blanco) in a semiarid region. Agricultural Water Management 140: 48-60.

Soelarso, R.B. 1996. Budidaya Jeruk Bebas Penyakit. Penerbit Kanisisus. Yogyakarta.

Sunggono, B. 2016. Statistika Kota Batu Tahun 2016. Badan Pusat Statisktik Kota Batu. Kota Batu. p 15.

Thomas, H. and Laurence, H.M. 2006. Modelling And Projecting Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes With A Cellular Automaton in Considering Landscape Trajectories: An Improvement For Simulation Of Plausible Future States. EARSeL eProceedings 5, 63–76.

Tramblay, Y., Badi, W., Driouech, F., El Adlouni, S., Neppel, L. and Servat, E. 2012. Climate change impacts on extreme precipitation in Morocco. Global and Planetary Change 82-83: 104-114.

Valiente, J.I. and Albrigo, L.G. 2004. Flower bud induction of sweet orange trees [Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck. Journal of American Society of Horticulture Science 129(2): 158-164.

Yulina, H., Saribun, D.S. dan Adin, Z. 2015. Hubungan antara Kemiringan dan Posisis Lereng dengan Tekstur Tanah,Permeabilitas dan Erodibilitas Tanah pada Lahan Tegalan di Desa Gunungsari, Kecamatan Cikatomas, Kabupaten Tasikmalaya. Jurnal Agrikultura 2015, 26 (1): 15-22ISSN 0853-2885.



  • There are currently no refbacks.